[Day 4: Late Afternoon] Accountancy 101 (Closed)

[Jon Cobb]

Once more, Jon found himself in the Tullys' great library, waiting for Measter Forthwind. He had chosen a secluded spot for the meeting and soon heard the tock-tock-tock of Forthwind's heavy cane approaching. Peeking out from behind a bookshelf, he waved Forthwind over.

"
It's good to see you again, Maester Forthwind! Did you attend the Maester's conclave this morning?"

[Reader]

Maester Forthwind heaved his ponderous bulk in Jon's direction.

"
It is ongoing I'm afraid Ser Jon! The greybeards barely break for lunch."


He shakes his head ruefully.

"
They get all the sustenance they need from books and back-biting."

[Jon Cobb]

"
Ah, forgive me then for tearing you away from such a gathering of great minds,"
Jon replies with an ironic smile. "
Did anything interesting at all transpire while you were there? Has spring come or not?"

[Reader]

"
There was scare room for true enquiry. Damnable point scoring and jockeying for position instead. The realm's uncertainty infects even the Citadel. That there are indeed great minds there makes it all the sadder."


Maester Forthwind sounds deflated.

[Jon Cobb]

Jon laughs out loud at Forthwind's account of the conclave. "
By the Seven, I'm glad that my calling lies far from the work of the Citadel! It all seems far too complicated for a simple man like myself. I shall just have to trust that spring will come some day, no matter what the great minds have to say about it."


"
Speaking of uncertain matters, Maester, I asked to meet with you to see if you could help resolve an uncertainty closer to home. As you know, Davain and Ser Fendrel have been busy all through the tourney gathering support for their claims to be lord of House Bartheld. Now I have heard tell that Davain and his...advocate...Nathan Mason have been saying that the traditional revels and open-handedness of House Bartheld must be curbed because they cost too much, threatening the finances of the house and siphoning of resources that would be better spent elsewhere."


"
I confess, my friend, that this is news to me. I have been given to understand that House Bartheld's coffers are well filled, with much in the way of disposable funds available for both feasting and more...prudent...investments. You are a neutral party in this matter, Maester Forthwind, so I turn to you in the hopes of getting to the truth. How strong are House Bartheld's finances really? And have any of the more recent revels been so extensive that they have actually threatened the stability of the house's finances?"

[Reader]

Maester Forthwind hums thoughtfully to himself. Citadel impartiality was foremost in his mind, given the ongoing conclave and his own commitment to his oaths.

"
A difficult question, with the truth in the eye of the beholder. None can deny House Bartheld's influence, but this has come at a cost. We are not driven to penury, far from it, but it is fair to say that a shift in focus might see us richer in coin but poorer in friends? A cautious man may prefer a larger treasury, to protect against disaster. But then, what if disaster does not visit us? Idle coins gather no friends, bind no alliances. Both paths have their virtues."


"
We have few men of our own to guard our borders, but when you are friends with your neighbours, why maintain a large garrison?"

[Jon Cobb]

"
Spoken like a true Maester, friend Forthwind! Nary a solid answer to be found!"
Jon replies with a tired, but not unfriendly, smile.

"
Would you agree, though, that no man can say for certain whether holding a few feasts less in the past, and instead spending the money they cost on more soldiers, or laying up winter stores, or similar 'prudent' measures, would have led to House Bartheld's treasury being larger than it is today? And, given that by your own account the treasury seems healthy enough as things stand, would you also agree that House Bartheld's revels and hospitality cannot reasonably be said to be draining the treasury faster than new coin is coming in?"

[Reader]

Maester Forthwind sighed. Knights could not be expected to understand the difference between simply storing coin and investing it. Knight simply had to understand killing.

"
Your words are fair, to be the learned they may appear twisted."


"
Winter stores provide no return, unless they are subsequently sold at higher prices or harvests fail."


"
But what if coin had been invested in establishing a proper forum for trade? A steep initial cost, buying returning the cost to us manyfold over subsequent years."


He looked at Jon quizzically, feeling he was failing to get his message across. This afterall, was subject for knights of the mind and merchants, not war heroes. While trying to avoid patronising Ser Jon, he tried to frame things in a martial context.

"
House Bartheld has had more than its fair share of bandits, thieves and robbers. You mention soliders - mayhap a larger military presence would have allowed us to crush these miscreants, or discouraged them from even arriving? In such a fashion, even men-at-arms may be seen as an investment."


A arcane text by a visiting scholar from Essos made once mentioned opportunity cost, but Maester Forthwind wondered if this was the right time for such a discussion.

[Jon Cobb]

"
Winter stores provide no return, unless they are subsequently sold at higher prices or harvests fail."


"
But what if coin had been invested in establishing a proper forum for trade? A steep initial cost, buying returning the cost to us manyfold over subsequent years."


He looked at Jon quizzically, feeling he was failing to get his message across. This afterall, was subject for knights of the mind and merchants, not war heroes. While trying to avoid patronising Ser Jon, he tried to frame things in a martial context.

"
House Bartheld has had more than its fair share of bandits, thieves and robbers. You mention soliders - mayhap a larger military presence would have allowed us to crush these miscreants, or discouraged them from even arriving? In such a fashion, even men-at-arms may be seen as an investment."

"
You are sidestepping my first question, Maester, and ignoring the second, more important one. You forget that I was once a lord myself - I am well acquainted with the need to spend money to make money. What I asked was whether it could be said for certain that spending less money on feasts in the past would have led to a healthier treasury today. My experiences tell me not, and nothing you have said contradicts this."


"
Since you brought up soldiers, let me give you a military example of my own. When I was a lord, I needed a standing force of soldiers for two purposes. The first was that the people living on the miserable rock I was granted were none too pleased to see me. So, soldiers were needed to control them and to extract what taxes I could. Second, the island had little in the way of resources - some smugglers made their home there, otherwise it was mostly goatherds. The only way I could ensure a steady stream of income was to buy a ship, hire even more soldiers, and start raiding the Triarchy merchant vessels that passed through the Stepstones. Of course, a standing force of soldiers is a constant drain on a treasury, and soldiers with nothing to do are wont to cause trouble at home. So, in order for my investment in a ship and raiders to pay off, I had to keep them at sea as much as possible. Every day ashore was just an expensive way of pissing away gold."


"
One day, my ship was damaged in a storm, and it took months to get it seaworthy again. For all those months, I had a glut of soldiers sitting in my keep, each one needing to be regularly paid. That little misadventure cost me most of the year's profits in one fell swoop. Of course, the storm that damaged my ship can be written off as simple bad luck, but it happened nonetheless, and the losses it caused me were real. Now, we can argue the value of paths not taken forever and a day, but can you honestly tell me that if Brom had invested his money differently, House Bartheld's treasury would definitely have been better off than it is now?

"
Which leads to the second, more important question I asked. In your own words, House Bartheld is "
far from penury"
. If Brom's revels had indeed been as costly as some would have it, how is it that the treasury is so well filled? Surely this is proof that the feasting is not costing more money than is being brought in by other means, whether that be taxes or sales from the Bartheld vineyards?"


"
And don't worry, once we've progressed past these matters, I have more questions needing your sage wisdom,"
Jon finishes with crooked grin.

[Jon Cobb]

OOC: I'm building a case here, so bear with me. I the good Maester starts answering the questions as they were asked, he'll soon find out the full gist of Jon's arguments.

[Reader]

Maester Forthwind tuts, unused to being spoken to in such a manner, but unwilling to risk a stronger rebuttal to a hero liker Ser Jon!

However, he is unable to restrain himself from reaching for military metaphor, hoping these are helpful, when Jon may find them patronising.

"
For the first part, little and less can be said with certainty. A thousand men should defeat one hundred, but you yourself know better than any man events do not always fall in line with the odds."


"
For the second part, the treasury is in reasonable condition thanks in no small part to my own skills."


He offers a mock bow.

"
But it could always be better."


"
You speak of certainty and absolutes Ser Jon, when this is a battlefield of chance and the tug of war between fuller and emptier."

[Jon Cobb]

"
For the first part, little and less can be said with certainty. A thousand men should defeat one hundred, but you yourself know better than any man events do not always fall in line with the odds."

"
Good, I'm glad to hear that we see eye to eye on this matter. Then perhaps you would also agree that if a party were to claim that, by investing differently, Brom would certainly have left the treasury fuller than he did, then that party would be stating an opinion, not a fact?"

"
For the second part, the treasury is in reasonable condition thanks in no small part to my own skills."


He offers a mock bow.

"
But it could always be better."

"
Then House Bartheld is fortunate to have you, Maester, and that it would be a fine thing were the treasury fatter still, is not something any sane man would dispute,"
Jon answers without irony.

"
But I take it from your answer that at present there is no evidence that Bartheld hospitality is undermining the house's capacity to also make other investments? And if that is the case, would not the most accurate representation of House Bartheld's finances be that there is room to hold festivities as grand as ever, while also making necessary investments in soldiers or a proper forum for trade*, as I believe you put it? And that at worst, the lord of the house would perhaps need to delay some of the larger investments if he also wishes Brom's policy of hospitality to continue unabated?"


OOC: *Investing in a marketplace is of course impossible without also investing in a small town, which requires +20 Land that House Bartheld is a long ways from getting. The only Wealth holding we could quickly add would be a mine, since we already have the requisite hills.

[Reader]

Maester Forthwind shrugs expansively.

"
Choices and trafe-offs Ser Jon, always choices and trafe-offs."


[OOC: apologies if he seems evasive here, but basically this is one of the debatable areas for House Bartheld, a question of direction and how both sides present the facts/evidence. Any hard questions, feel free to kick them around IC, lest I give away too much to outsiders. ]

[Jon Cobb]

Maester Forthwind shrugs expansively.

"
Choices and trafe-offs Ser Jon, always choices and trafe-offs."

"
Maester, you squirm worse than a barrel full of eels,"
Jon answers with a resigned smile. "
Listen, I understand that you are trying to avoid taking sides in the dispute between Davain and Ser Fendrel, but as House Bartheld's maester and steward, surely you should be concerned that Davain and his little...friend...are busy spreading the tale that House Bartheld is - or soon will be - in dire financial straits? If nothing else, you have agreed with me that the treasury is currently in good condition, but if Davain's noble peers start believing his tales, then you know as well as I do that House Bartheld's credibility will be seriously damaged in all things - not just financial matters."


"
I am not asking you to set aside you vows, Forthwind my friend. I am asking you to stand up for House Bartheld, by providing a more truthful account of the state of House Bartheld's economy and its prospects for the future. Surely your vows will allow you to do that?"
Jon asks earnestly, fixing Forthwind with a piercing stare.

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